International trade and tariffs continue to be in the spotlight. Let’s dive into the facts and figures and what they mean for the food and beverage industry. The article begins with the latest data on international trade, highlighting key commodities and major trade partners. It then moves into recent developments on tariffs, before concluding with the implications for the industry.
International Trade: Key Facts and Figures
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) regularly publishes agricultural trade outlooks. According to the January 2025 USDA Outlook, U.S. agricultural exports are projected to reach $ 170.5 billion. Agricultural imports, meanwhile, are expected to rise to $ 219.5 billion in 2025.
Top Trade Commodities
1. Exports
Horticultural products – including fruits, nuts, vegetables, and beverages – led U.S. agricultural exports in 2024, reaching a value of $ 40.9 billion. Livestock, dairy, and poultry followed closely at $ 38.8 billion value. Grains and feeds ranked third, also totaling $ 38.8 billion in export value.
2. Exports
Horticultural products were by far the largest agricultural import into the U.S., with a value of $ 101.4 billion. Other major import categories included sugar and tropical products ($ 29.3 billion), and livestock, dairy and poultry ($ 29 billion).
For a detailed breakdown of commodities and their trade values, have a look at the U.S. Agricultural Trade Outlook.
Key Trade Partners
As per USDA’s 2025 forecast:
- Mexico (a record $ 30.2 billion) and Canada ($ 28.4 billion) are expected to remain the most important destinations for U.S. exports of agricultural commodities.
- China ($ 22.0 billion) is forecasted as the third-largest export destination.
- For imports, Mexico ($ 49.1 billion) and Canada ($ 42.9 billion) top the list, followed by the European Union ($ 37.3 billion).
Fruit and vegetables account for significant imports from Mexico, while grains, oilseeds and food-grade oils are major imports from Canada.
Notably, the importance of Mexico and Canada has grown over the past 25 years, largely due to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), now replaced by the U.S.- Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2020. China’s role has expanded thanks to their rising household incomes, evolving trade policies and policy developments. U.S. agricultural exports to China rose from 4% in 1998-2004 to 15% during 2012-23.
International Trade Agreements
The U.S. is a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which operates a global system of trade rules, promotes multilateral trading, provides a platform for negotiating international agreements and solves trade disputes between countries.
Additionally, the U.S. has Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with 20 countries. They are mainly bilateral (e.g. with Australia and Colombia), with USMCA being a key multilateral agreement involving Canada and Mexico.
What are Tariffs?
The WTO defines tariffs as “custom duties on merchandise imports. They give a price advantage to locally produced goods over similar goods which are imported, and they raise revenues for governments”.
Beyond tariffs, there are non-tariff measures: rules or licensing demands that indirectly increase costs for importers. Examples include health certifications for dairy, or bans on genetically modified products.
The U.S. Trade Representative recently published the 2025 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers which lists barriers that countries impose, such as:
- Health certificates for animal products
- Bans due to pest or disease concerns
- Additional certifications to lift import bans
Recent Tariff Policies
The Trump Administration introduced a global baseline tariff of 10% to “strengthen the international economic position of the United States and protect American workers”. On top of that, higher reciprocal tariffs were introduced for countries with which the U.S. has significant trade deficits, for example Vietnam (46%), China (34%) and the European Union (20%).
As for Canada and Mexico have faced a 25% tariff since last March. USMCA compliant goods will remain with a 0% tariff, non-compliant USMCA goods remain with a 25% tariff. Most Agricultural goods meet the USMCA-criteria and are exempted from tariffs.
How Might This Affect the Food and Beverage Industry?
1. Direct effects
There are several ways the food value chain can be affected by tariffs. A direct way is that imported goods will become more expensive. That can lead to having favorable prices for certain products in grocery stores for food that is produced in the U.S. For products that are not grown in the U.S. and where the domestic market is dependent on imports of bananas, coffee or cocoa, consumer prices are expected to go up. The Consumer Brands Association wrote a letter to the White House ensuring that CPG companies try their very best to source ingredients and products as much as possible from U.S. farms, but some are simply not available.
In the manufacturing process, tariffs can drive up costs, especially when depending on imports for parts or ingredients, for example steel and aluminum used in cans.
2. Indirect effects
As an indirect effect, retaliatory measures from trade partners may affect food and agriculture. Darci Vetter, a former Chief Agricultural Negotiator at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative participated in a recent Chicago Council on Global Affairs event. She recalled how earlier tariffs on China led to retaliatory tariffs of U.S. exports for key commodities like soybeans, corn, cotton. China then sought alternative markets for these commodities, notably from Brazil, and those lost markets were never fully restored. Vetter warned that things don’t go back to the way they were.
In March, Canada retaliated by imposing 25% tariffs on U.S. products like peanut butter, wine, spirits and coffee.
Tariffs and More to be Discussed at our Food & Beverage Supply Chain Solutions Panel
The developments of tariffs and international trade policies will continue to be a factor to consider in supply chain planning. Want to learn more about resilient supply chain management? Interested in what other trends play a part and how to prepare your business for the uncertain? Join us during our Food & Beverage Supply Chain Solutions event, April 9 at Perkins Coie.